This course, which is based on a publication from the NRCS, provides an overview of water supply forecasting, a critical component of water management in western states of the United States that depend on seasonal runoff from snowmelt.

This course describes the forecasting process, including the use of statistical and simulation models to predict streamflow, and the various products and tools available to water managers to assist in making informed decisions.

Also discussed is the importance of accuracy in forecasting and the tools available to evaluate forecast accuracy.

Additionally, the course describes the Reservoir Operation Guide and the Surface Water Supply Index as additional tools for water management.

Topics:

• Overview of Water Supply Forecasting;
• History of Water Supply Forecasting;
• Forecast Products and Procedures;
• Statistical Models;
• Hydrologic Simulation Models;
• Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Technique;
• Forecast Uncertainty;
• Forecast Accuracy;
• Applications of Water Supply Forecasts;
• Reservoir Operations;
• Drought Management;
• Water Management and Planning.

Publication Source: USDA NRCS